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DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK
09-14-2013, 06:59 PM,
#31
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK


<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from Chris Yates on September 14, 2013, 5:39 pm</b>
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<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from John Brown on September 14, 2013, 4:55 pm</b>

His Spanish teacher is one huge clue for me. There's this line: Her mouth was moving in fast cadence with her choppy steps and it was obvious that rage had found a home. There he's describing white water. But there is a far bigger clue than that related to her. It's more of a run me over with a truck sort of clue.


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Bravo in spanish can mean Brave, fierce, angry , wild, rough



http://www.spanishdict.com/translate/bravo

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Keep trying.
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09-14-2013, 07:19 PM,
#32
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK
john its fair for you to have your opinion ,and your sorta right when fenn said frosty sounded like a garbage truck backing up,that it.my opinion.you are the kinda person that can put this poem to rest. I hope you don't beat me to it ,but good luck.and I was told I cant use my devices on the plane.lots of luck to all
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09-15-2013, 07:45 AM,
#33
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK


<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from pidmt on September 14, 2013, 8:19 pm</b>

john its fair for you to have your opinion ,and your sorta right when fenn said frosty sounded like a garbage truck backing up,that it.my opinion.you are the kinda person that can put this poem to rest. I hope you don't beat me to it ,but good luck.and I was told I cant use my devices on the plane.lots of luck to all
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I'm not really super interested in sending people out to my area anyway. The particular clue I'm talking about goes beyond opinion. I would argue that it would be a clear case of deliberate misdirection if it is not in the area the clue points to although I guess it could be coincidence.



I appreciate your vote of confidence. I think there are a bunch of smart people trying to solve this thing. I think it is well within the abilities of any of them to solve it. What matters is the strategy that they adopt and whether their strategy is close enough to Forrest Fenn's mindset that it takes them to the area where he hid it. We all adopt strategies that are in harmony with our circumstances. My strategy is to learn everything I can about an area that I dearly love and that I've been to many many times long before the chase ever began. I discovered what I now consider to be the most beautiful spot in the state of New Mexico. If I'm right about the area then I have a better than average chance of finding it, but I'm wearing blinders. I'm not really considering other areas that I probably should. As far as I can tell I am constitutionally incapable of considering other areas. On the other hand my area is the size of Yellow Stone NP so it is a pretty big chunk of northern NM. I've implemented my strategy by visiting the area many many times since I began the search in earnest. When I got stuck I did random stuff, picked up a book about the area in a general store that really opened my eyes. I realized I was incredibly ignorant of the immediate area where I have lived for the past quarter century. Then I started really digging, reading obscure documents that are difficult to obtain. Because it is easy for me to learn stuff about my area that is not on the internet I have chosen to focus on that information. I could easily be wrong. My area is 40 miles as the crow flies from my front door so my strategy is manifestly suited to my circumstances. As far as I can tell pretty much everyone else's is too. If you live far away and can only make a relatively small number of trips then your optimal strategy will be very different from my optimal strategy. GOOD LUCK!
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09-15-2013, 08:17 AM,
#34
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK
John Brown,



Your strategy makes more sense than you think. It is like the guy who dropped his car keys at night and is looking around the base of a street light for them. A passerby offers to help look and asks if he is sure this is the area where he lost them? The man answers that he's not sure exactly where he lost them, but the light here is good. In other words, searching where you have some chance of finding the treasure is better than not searching at all. Besides, you can't search everywhere.



mdavis19
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09-15-2013, 08:57 AM,
#35
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK


<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from mdavis19 on September 15, 2013, 9:17 am</b>

John Brown,



Your strategy makes more sense than you think. It is like the guy who dropped his car keys at night and is looking around the base of a street light for them. A passerby offers to help look and asks if he is sure this is the area where he lost them? The man answers that he's not sure exactly where he lost them, but the light here is good. In other words, searching where you have some chance of finding the treasure is better than not searching at all. Besides, you can't search everywhere.



mdavis19
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Wow, like, WOW. Mdavis19, there have been only a couple of comments that I have read during my involvement in this chase which have made my eyes pop out of my head. One of them was when the user 'Einstein' on Dal's blog made the comment, "The Eagle has landed."



The other one was your paragraph above.



I went to bed last night thinking about that parable, woke up this morning thinking about it, logged in to chasechat.com this morning thinking about it, and was thinking about it while perusing the latest comments, including yours, above. Pretty amazing.



Your interpretation is interesting. The wikipedia page gives a, shall we say, alternate, interpretation.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect



My opinion: The book is the area of ground under the street light.

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09-15-2013, 09:43 AM,
#36
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK


<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from mdavis19 on September 15, 2013, 9:17 am</b>

John Brown,



Your strategy makes more sense than you think. It is like the guy who dropped his car keys at night and is looking around the base of a street light for them. A passerby offers to help look and asks if he is sure this is the area where he lost them? The man answers that he's not sure exactly where he lost them, but the light here is good. In other words, searching where you have some chance of finding the treasure is better than not searching at all. Besides, you can't search everywhere.



mdavis19
</div>


Thanks. I was actually aware that it made sense. Really it is what everyone is doing. We're intuitively executing Bayesian searches. You can read about them on wikipedia. The wikipedia article is pretty scant though. When they search for stuff on the sea bottom they of course have to use a cost function which isn't discussed in wikipedia. We all have different cost functions because we have different circumstances. My searches cost about $30 a whack. It's the price of the gas I burn getting there and I burn a lot. I wish I could fly those 40 miles.
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09-15-2013, 11:04 AM,
#37
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK
I have seen the Wikipedia version too, and heard the joke about the drunk guy a few times too. Sure we are all suffering to some extent from the classic streetlight effect. I think my version came from one of my teachers in school. Probably either economics or physics. Anyway, the point is, you can restrict your search for knowledge (or hidden treasure) down to only where you are actually able to search, as long as you know that area is inside the bounds of where it could realistically be. The difference with the Wikipedia version, and what makes it into a joke, is that the drunk knows his keys aren't under the lamp. That would be like one of us continuing to search in Utah because it is more convenient, even though Forrest has ruled it out. So Yes, taking into account costs, time limitations, familiarity with the terrain, the bounds of the search area, and our individual interpretations of the poem, we all select our own personal street lamps to look under. But that is not necessarily a bad thing. Besides, Forrest was probably also under the influence of the streetlight effect when he hid the treasure. We just need to find his streetlight.



mdavis19

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09-15-2013, 11:32 AM,
#38
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK
yes
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09-15-2013, 11:55 AM,
#39
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK
I think the poem is the streetlight. I understand that some people must look close to them because of certain logistical or financial circumstances. But if the poem isn't doing the illuminating prior to the fact, it may not be the search with the highest probability.



I live in one of the states where the treasure may be located, and I wish the poem took me here. It would make things a lot easier. But I am searching beyond the light.



SYand42lbsHeavier,

Halogetter

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09-15-2013, 03:02 PM,
#40
DID YOU FIND ANY CLUES IN THE BOOK


<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from mdavis19 on September 15, 2013, 12:04 pm</b>

I have seen the Wikipedia version too, and heard the joke about the drunk guy a few times too. Sure we are all suffering to some extent from the classic streetlight effect. I think my version came from one of my teachers in school. Probably either economics or physics. Anyway, the point is, you can restrict your search for knowledge (or hidden treasure) down to only where you are actually able to search, as long as you know that area is inside the bounds of where it could realistically be. The difference with the Wikipedia version, and what makes it into a joke, is that the drunk knows his keys aren't under the lamp. That would be like one of us continuing to search in Utah because it is more convenient, even though Forrest has ruled it out. So Yes, taking into account costs, time limitations, familiarity with the terrain, the bounds of the search area, and our individual interpretations of the poem, we all select our own personal street lamps to look under. But that is not necessarily a bad thing. Besides, Forrest was probably also under the influence of the streetlight effect when he hid the treasure. We just need to find his streetlight.



mdavis19
</div>


I find it fascinating. For example it is important to me that I actually enjoy the search because I've spent hundreds of hours physically searching (exploring more than searching really) since memorial day and I think there is a low probability of success. Never mind that I enjoy scrabbling through cactus and other semi-vicious plants that all rip hundreds of little holes in my arms and legs. I usually leava trail of blood wherever I go. If I was both miserable while I was searching and believed (as I do) that I had a low probability of success it would be ridiculous for me to continue. Chris Yates on the other hand believes he has a high probability of success but can only mount a relatively small number of actual searches and thus doesn't care whether he is miserable or not during his searches. Both positions make perfectly good sense in light of our respective circumstances.
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