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5 years...no consensus
04-21-2016, 06:07 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-21-2016, 06:08 PM by romeofoxtrot.)
#1
5 years...no consensus
After 5 years, its a bit surprising there is no consensus on ANYTHING. Whether its the poem alone, or not.Which state, where wwwh, HoB, etc. There is not one single thing.

The only thing we know for certain, multiple someones have been close. Someone has been VERY close.
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04-21-2016, 06:12 PM,
#2
RE: 5 years...no consensus
there will never be consensus on any forum....because should you figure it out you wouldn't breathe a word of it to anyone....
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04-21-2016, 06:20 PM,
#3
RE: 5 years...no consensus
(04-21-2016, 06:12 PM)mrmagicarovrumrebel Wrote: there will never be consensus on any forum....because should you figure it out you wouldn't breathe a word of it to anyone....

That may be true for the last clues, or the final solve.

But...that shouldnt be the case for the first clues. Over time, there should be a SIGN of convergence. People come, people go. And most are willing to discuss the first clues openly. Yet, no consensus. Youd think over time, 5 years, there would be a shred of something.

We have had 5 years of folks thinking they figured it out. At some point, probability has to show itself. Youd think?
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04-21-2016, 06:21 PM,
#4
RE: 5 years...no consensus
I think this is not the forum to reveal any ideas.
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04-21-2016, 08:32 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-21-2016, 08:58 PM by muset.)
#5
RE: 5 years...no consensus
(04-21-2016, 06:07 PM)romeofoxtrot Wrote: After 5 years, its a bit surprising there is no consensus on ANYTHING. Whether its the poem alone, or not.Which state, where wwwh, HoB, etc. There is not one single thing.

It's a good thing. I think we all have felt the sense of urgency before, and many have rushed off too soon.

I like that I don't have to rush to my latest spot and I think the Chase is better as more of a personal quest rather than a rat race.
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04-21-2016, 08:41 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-21-2016, 09:41 PM by ThrillChaser.)
#6
RE: 5 years...no consensus
(04-21-2016, 06:20 PM)romeofoxtrot Wrote: We have had 5 years of folks thinking they figured it out. At some point, probability has to show itself. Youd think?

To the extent that probability has any say here, I believe it has shown itself, just not in the way that you seem to expect it would. Most likely the probability of anyone solving a clue correctly is extremely low, and this has been shown by the lack of consensus on the correct solution for any clue. I believe there are most likely less than half a dozen people in the world who know what a correct clue solution looks like, somewhere in the range of 50,000 - 100,000 : 1.

There are a lot of people who have a lot of different solutions, and they are almost all wrong, but many people believe their solutions are correct. That is consistent with how at least one other hunt progressed, based on a interview with the hunt-setter after the hunt was over. Eliza, I thought, made a post and included a link to that interview in one of her "how treasure hunts end" posts, but I can't find it now. I think it was the hunt that ended at Independence Pass in CO, does anyone know the name of that hunt?

Edit: It was Tennessee Pass, and Treasure in Search of the Golden Horse. I still can't find the article interviewing the author after the search ended.
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04-21-2016, 09:47 PM,
#7
RE: 5 years...no consensus
5 years, and the collective brainpower of hundreds or thousands has not come to a single consensus of a single clue?
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04-21-2016, 10:16 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-21-2016, 10:19 PM by ThrillChaser.)
#8
RE: 5 years...no consensus
(04-21-2016, 09:47 PM)romeofoxtrot Wrote: 5 years, and the collective brainpower of hundreds or thousands has not come to a single consensus of a single clue?

Collective to me implies cooperative, and for the most part this hunt isn't particularly cooperative where it counts. I believe many hints are known by many people but you never see them discussed on the blogs. I doubt a single one of the posts I've made in the last couple of weeks were ideas undiscovered by someone else, but my posting may have been the first time they were shown on a blog. I imagine people believe the hints they keep close are too valuable to give away, some posters have about said as much.

You also say "hundreds of thousands." I've seen a number in that range used before by other searchers, and I have no idea where it comes from, but it sounds really high to me. I believe less than 50,000 copies of TTOTC have been printed, but I don't know that for sure. Certainly not everyone who owns a copy of TTOTC is actively searching, and there are certainly others who don't own the book who are.

So if for every copy of TTOTC there were two active searchers (honestly that sounds high to me), you'd have 100,000 active searchers total. Using my estimation of the likelihood of anyone solving a clue correctly, that'd mean 1 or 2 people have solved a clue.

In short, there is no "collective brainpower." There are individuals each using their own brain power independently, not sharing their "best stuff", and coming up with different solutions, though many of the serious searchers are reading the same old regurgitated tripe, arguably largely void of many potentially useful hints, on the blogs, and have probably based their solutions on some of it. So maybe in way there is some level of consensus among some people, that "we must be doing something right", but I believe most likely it is almost all wrong.
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04-21-2016, 10:51 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-21-2016, 10:55 PM by romeofoxtrot.)
#9
RE: 5 years...no consensus
(04-21-2016, 10:16 PM)ThrillChaser Wrote: You also say "hundreds of thousands."
or, not of

(04-21-2016, 10:16 PM)ThrillChaser Wrote: There are individuals each using their own brain power independently, not sharing their "best stuff"
So they are sharing their less than best stuff? And still havent come up with consensus on ONE thing?

How about all the solves that have been shared over at HoD? Were those solves they attempted their second best solves? They spent all that money putting BotG, for a second rate solve not using their "best stuff"?
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04-21-2016, 11:55 PM,
#10
RE: 5 years...no consensus
(04-21-2016, 06:21 PM)HollyfromMN Wrote: I think this is not the forum to reveal any ideas.
If thats the case, what exactly is the point of this forum?
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